Karen Newton, Business and Wealth Strategy - Deciphering The Economy

  Why Short-Term Moves Don’t Change the Long-Term Case It’s been a while since I’ve written a market commentary, and gold and silver felt like the right place to return. Today we’re seeing something that often confuses newer investors: gold is down again , while silver has edged slightly higher . Add in political headlines, including the latest nominee announcement from Donald Trump  and it’s easy for people to assume something has changed . In reality, this is exactly how precious metals behave during periods of uncertainty. The Political Trigger — Not the Real Driver Whenever a major political figure signals a shift in economic, monetary, or regulatory direction, markets react first and think later. Nominees linked to: tighter fiscal discipline looser monetary policy or challenges to central bank independence can all cause short-term repositioning in gold and silver. Traders adjust. Profits get taken. Algorithms do what algorithms do. But political appoin...

  At first glance, tariffs, wars and extreme weather appear to be completely unrelated events. One is political. One is geopolitical. One is environmental. Yet when you step back and look beyond the headlines, they all expose the same weakness — over-reliance on fragile global systems . In recent years, global supply chains have been stretched, tested, and in many cases broken. What once looked efficient has revealed itself to be brittle. And every time disruption hits — whether through trade restrictions, conflict, or natural disaster — the same question resurfaces: How resilient is a country when external systems fail? The answer increasingly points to one place: the strength of its domestic economy . The Illusion of Global Stability For decades, globalisation promised lower costs, faster production, and seamless trade. Businesses optimised for efficiency, not resilience. Governments assumed systems would always work because they always had. But efficiency removes slack from ...

 Most people don’t fail to change because they lack effort. They fail because they never stop to decide what they’re actually building toward. It’s easy to move through life reacting to circumstances, to pressure, to whatever feels urgent in the moment. Days turn into years, and before long, people find themselves somewhere they never consciously chose. The future doesn’t arrive by accident. It’s shaped quietly, long before you get there. When you look ahead, really look, what do you see? Not a fantasy. Not a highlight reel. But a life that feels steady, intentional, and aligned with the way you want to live. For many, 2025 was a difficult year. Financial strain, uncertainty, and constant change took their toll. If things didn’t turn out the way you hoped, that doesn’t mean you failed. It means you’ve reached a point where a different decision is required. Real change doesn’t begin with resolutions. It begins with clarity. Clarity about what matters. Cla...

 As we approach the end of the year, many people naturally begin reflecting on their finances. They review what they saved. What they spent. What they meant to do but didn’t quite get around to. And for many, investing sits firmly in that final category. Recent figures show that 61% of savers now find investing confusing , up sharply from a decade ago. Among women, that figure rises to 75% . At the same time, people are saving more than ever yet a large proportion still avoid investing altogether. That combination should give us pause. Because if access to information were the answer, confusion should be falling not rising. The real issue isn’t risk — it’s education Investing is rarely taught in schools. Saving is encouraged. Spending is warned against. Debt is discussed, often fearfully. But investing? It’s treated as something “advanced”, complex, or only suitable for experts. So people grow up believing: They need specialist knowledge They need perfect ...

A quote from Michael Saylor did the rounds recently:  “We sold $1.5B of stock backed by $500M of Bitcoin We bought back $1.5B of Bitcoin, capturing a billion-dollar gain in the arbitrage.” At first glance, it sounds confusing.  At second glance, it sounds impossible.  And at third glance, many assume it must simply be Bitcoin “going up”. It wasn’t. This wasn’t about predicting price. It was about understanding where the market was mispricing value .  Before we go further: two simple definitions Let’s strip the jargon away first. What is a premium ? A premium exists when something is selling for more than the value of what’s underneath it . For example: If an asset is worth £100  But people are willing to pay £150 for access to it That extra £50 is the premium People often pay premiums for: Convenience Familiarity Simplicity Or because something is easier to buy What is arbitrage ? Arbitrage is simply: Buying somethi...

December always feels quiet. Markets slow. People turn their attention to family, food, and a well-earned pause at the end of the year. But economic cycles don’t stop just because the calendar does. They continue to move, often most quietly right before a shift. Those who have lived through more than one cycle know this pattern well. Big changes rarely arrive with sirens. They arrive with subtle signals: tired consumers, shorter holidays, rising costs that feel manageable… until they aren’t. This is where we are now. Not in crisis, but in transition. Why 2026 Is Being Talked About Quietly By the time headlines start shouting “crash,” the real opportunities are already gone. The wealth transfer doesn’t happen during the chaos, it happens because of the preparation done before it. 2026 sits at the convergence of multiple long-running trends: debt cycles, interest rate pressure, demographic shifts, and technological acceleration. None of this is new. What’s different this time is ...