Karen Newton, Business and Wealth Strategy - Deciphering The Economy

Following the US, Israel and Iran conflic in the Middle East and the escalation over the weekend, I watched the Markets open this morning with a textbook reaction to the situation. Oil surged sharply. Gold and silver moved higher. Equity indices dropped. Crypto pulled back. Bond yields fell as investors sought safety. There is no panic in these moves. There is repricing.  The key question now is not the headline. It is the second-order effect, the what happens next the defines the investment strategy for the coming weeks and months. The Markets are going to remain volatile while investors have to remain calm.   In this commentary we look at the future impact on the economy and how to position yourself to protect assets and identify opportunities. How Energy Becomes Inflation Oil is a major resource in the Middle East with any unrest impacting oil prices. When oil rises, it rarely stays in the oil market.  Oil is a major part of our lives. Higher ...

Over the past few days, I’ve seen multiple headlines suggesting that retail investors are exiting the crypto market. Fear is rising. Risk appetite is shrinking and Capital preservation is back in focus. That’s understandable. When prices fall, confidence wobbles. But here’s the more important question:  Has the underlying investment thesis (the reason to buy) changed? Because there is a big difference between: A shift in sentiment And a shift in structure Let’s use Bitcoin as the example. Retail (Mum, Dad and the Kids) participation may reduce during downturns. That’s not new. It has happened in previous cycles. But has the core structure changed? The supply cap remains. The network still functions. Institutional access still exists. Adoption infrastructure has not disappeared. So if the structure remains, what we are witnessing is not collapse, it is caution. And caution is psychological. This is what happens during risk-off environments: Investor...

 I noticed a light-hearted trend on social media recently, AI-generated caricatures. Bright colours, exaggerated features, instantly recognisable as part of a moment everyone is sharing. Out of curiosity, I tried it myself. What came back wasn’t brightly coloured or exaggerated. It was black and white. Restrained. More photographic than cartoon-like. All I can say is ChatGPT understands my branding and business. But it also struck me how closely this mirrors behaviour we see not just in marketing, but in financial  markets . Crowds and Comfort Most people feel more comfortable doing what everyone else is doing. In social media, that means following trends. In markets, it means buying what’s already popular. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that. Trends are signals. They show where attention is flowing right now . But attention and value are not the same thing. Investors Think Differently Investors tend to pause where others rush. Instead of asking: “W...

  Why Short-Term Moves Don’t Change the Long-Term Case It’s been a while since I’ve written a market commentary, and gold and silver felt like the right place to return. Today we’re seeing something that often confuses newer investors: gold is down again , while silver has edged slightly higher . Add in political headlines, including the latest nominee announcement from Donald Trump  and it’s easy for people to assume something has changed . In reality, this is exactly how precious metals behave during periods of uncertainty. The Political Trigger — Not the Real Driver Whenever a major political figure signals a shift in economic, monetary, or regulatory direction, markets react first and think later. Nominees linked to: tighter fiscal discipline looser monetary policy or challenges to central bank independence can all cause short-term repositioning in gold and silver. Traders adjust. Profits get taken. Algorithms do what algorithms do. But political appoin...

  At first glance, tariffs, wars and extreme weather appear to be completely unrelated events. One is political. One is geopolitical. One is environmental. Yet when you step back and look beyond the headlines, they all expose the same weakness — over-reliance on fragile global systems . In recent years, global supply chains have been stretched, tested, and in many cases broken. What once looked efficient has revealed itself to be brittle. And every time disruption hits — whether through trade restrictions, conflict, or natural disaster — the same question resurfaces: How resilient is a country when external systems fail? The answer increasingly points to one place: the strength of its domestic economy . The Illusion of Global Stability For decades, globalisation promised lower costs, faster production, and seamless trade. Businesses optimised for efficiency, not resilience. Governments assumed systems would always work because they always had. But efficiency removes slack from ...

 Most people don’t fail to change because they lack effort. They fail because they never stop to decide what they’re actually building toward. It’s easy to move through life reacting to circumstances, to pressure, to whatever feels urgent in the moment. Days turn into years, and before long, people find themselves somewhere they never consciously chose. The future doesn’t arrive by accident. It’s shaped quietly, long before you get there. When you look ahead, really look, what do you see? Not a fantasy. Not a highlight reel. But a life that feels steady, intentional, and aligned with the way you want to live. For many, 2025 was a difficult year. Financial strain, uncertainty, and constant change took their toll. If things didn’t turn out the way you hoped, that doesn’t mean you failed. It means you’ve reached a point where a different decision is required. Real change doesn’t begin with resolutions. It begins with clarity. Clarity about what matters. Cla...