Karen Newton, Business and Wealth Strategy - Deciphering The Economy

Last year, parts of Spain experienced widespread power cuts. In our area, the electricity was off for more than 12 hours. Since then, we have experienced two more outages lasting between 6 and 8 hours. For many people, it was simply an inconvenience. For others, it exposed a much bigger problem. One of our neighbours rents out his property to holidaymakers. On the day of the first outage, guests had just arrived from Netherlands . Their flight landed only minutes before the power went down. Like many people today, they travelled with no cash only debit cards and digital payment methods. They went to a local supermarket to buy food supplies, but the checkouts were closed because payment systems were offline. The supermarket shut its doors for the rest of the day. Restaurants remained open, but only for customers paying in cash. The visitors were stuck. We gave them food and water they could cook on the BBQ so they had something to eat until systems came back online. That experie...

  Over the weekend, I watched an economic discussion around the latest forecasts from NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) warning   about rising inflation risks, slowing growth and increasing unemployment pressure in the UK economy. On the surface, this may sound like another standard recession warning. But beneath the headlines, something more important may be developing. This is not just about slowing growth. This is about the possibility of inflation and recession returning together. And that changes everything. Why This Economic Environment Is Different Nobody likes a recession.  They know how difficult it becomes to balance finances but recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle and they help reduce inflation because Consumer spending slows.  Businesses lower prices.  Demand weakens.  Inflation falls. But the current risks are different because much of the pressure is coming from outside the UK economy.  The UK ...

  Why I Follow the News (And How I Use It to Find Opportunity) Most people avoid the news. They say it’s negative, overwhelming, or simply too confusing to make sense of. But I’ve always done the opposite. I follow the news because it gives me an edge. Not to react but to understand what’s coming next. The Difference: Watching vs Interpreting There are two ways to consume the news: Passive – reading headlines, reacting emotionally Strategic – looking for patterns, signals, and opportunities Most people stay in the first group. They see headlines like economic slowdown, rising inflation, and global tensions and they feel uncertainty. I see the same headlines and start asking different questions: What does this mean for income? What assets benefit from this? Where is money likely to flow next? That’s where the opportunity is. How I Read the News Differently I don’t follow every story. I focus on themes: Economic shifts Government policy Infrastructure...

  The UK Recession Signals Are Aligning – This Is What Happens Next Over the past year, the signals have been building quietly in the background. Now they’re starting to align. The International Monetary Fund , Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development , and multiple economic forecasts are all pointing in the same direction. The UK economy is weakening and the word “recession” is starting to reappear. What the Data Is Saying While many will try to attribute this to the oil crisis, the warning signs were already visible last year. In October 2025, I wrote “Rising Insolvencies and Unemployment: The Early Signals of a UK Recession,” where I outlined the conditions pointing toward a 2026 downturn. Recent data now supports that view: UK growth forecasts cut significantly Inflation rising again toward 4% Consumer spending weakening Business investment slowing Analysts warning the UK may “flirt with recession” in 2026 This isn’t a sudden event....

 As pressure builds around NATO and questions grow over long-term US commitment, much of the focus remains on what could be lost. But history shows that when power structures shift, new centres of strength emerge. And right now, that shift is happening in Eastern Europe. The strategy becomes identifying the shifts and positioning for the long-term. Key Takeaways Poland is rapidly becoming Europe’s strongest land-based military force Ukraine is evolving into a military innovation hub Eastern Europe is shifting from “buffer zone” to power centre Defence spending and capability are accelerating This is a structural shift—not a temporary reaction Poland: Europe’s Military Anchor Poland is quietly becoming one of the most powerful military forces in Europe. Significant increases in defence spending Investment in modern equipment from the US and South Korea Strategic geographic position on NATO’s eastern flank Poland is no longer just a frontline state. It is becom...

 Over the past few days, headlines have intensified around NATO , with speculation that Donald Trump may significantly reduce or even withdraw US support. But while the headlines focus on political statements, something far more important is happening quietly in the background. Europe is already preparing for a different future. Key Takeaways Europe is increasing military readiness (selective conscription, policy tightening) Defence production is accelerating across key countries Energy security concerns are rising—but not collapsing Gold reserve positioning is shifting (with nuance) The real story: Europe is preparing for reduced reliance on the US  Military Readiness: Conscription & Policy Changes Across Europe, governments are quietly strengthening military readiness with changes to legislation. Croatia has reintroduced mandatory military service Germany has tightened regulations around men of service age travelling abroad with 17-45 year olds who wan...