Karen Newton, Business and Wealth Strategy - Deciphering The Economy

 This week’s UK Budget has created more questions than answers, particularly after the OBR’s latest figures revealed a £4 billion credit rather than the widely discussed fiscal “black hole.” The contrast between the government’s narrative and the underlying numbers has caused understandable confusion. Rather than focusing on the political noise, this commentary looks at what really matters: how financial markets may interpret the situation when they open next week . In moments like this, investors don’t react to headlines — they react to signals. What the OBR Numbers Actually Showed The initial expectation earlier in the autumn was a significant funding shortfall. However, the OBR’s updated pre-Budget forecast showed a small fiscal surplus. This sharp difference between expectations and actual figures has fuelled much of the current uncertainty. For investors, the concern is not about which interpretation is “right,” but that conflicting narratives create instability . When d...

Side hustles used to be a bonus. A way to earn a little extra, pay off a bill, or save for something special. Not anymore. According to the Daily Mail, one in four people now has a side hustle , yet the average income works out to just £6.60 per hour  barely half of the national average wage of £12.21. And that statistic tells us everything we need to know about the state of the economy. People aren’t juggling two or three jobs because they want to.  They’re doing it because the cost of living has climbed faster than wages, inflation has eaten into savings, and financial stability feels further away than ever. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: The problem isn’t the side hustle. It’s the way the side hustle is built. Most people choose side hustles that: rely on trading time for money offer very little scalability depend entirely on personal output create more stress, not freedom Selling second-hand clothing, freelancing, content creation, bas...

When the headlines turn bleak, history always repeats itself. And right now, the signals are flashing bright red. Corporate giants are wobbling.  Governments are overstretched.  Unemployment is rising quietly in the background.  Commercial real estate is cracking under vacant offices and collapsing valuations.  Corporations like Blackrock, in recent years, posted the largest corporate loss in history blaming a sudden drop in investor activity. That alone tells you where confidence really is. Meanwhile, analysts estimate that 28,000 UK businesses are on the verge of collapse , with similar patterns emerging across Europe. These are not isolated events. They are symptoms of an economy running out of road. And when this happens? People return to the one strategy that has worked in every major downturn: Be Your Own Provider. Cottage industries, once seen as old-fashioned are becoming one of the smartest responses to unstable times. Why? They’re low-cost ...

The financial headlines are quietly echoing 2007 again — rising subprime exposure, this time not in housing, but in car loans, credit cards, and corporate debt . Barclays, for example, has heavy exposure through auto finance and consumer credit, while at the same time taking on major borrowing to buy assets. On the surface, everything looks stable — employment figures are holding and markets remain calm. But underneath, debt quality is deteriorating . More borrowers are defaulting, and the secondary lenders feeding these loans are tightening terms. It’s the same story told a different way: when credit expands faster than income, cracks appear. The subprime problem isn’t just about bad loans; it’s about systemic dependency on borrowed money . The banks profit while the public absorbs the risk. And when markets tighten, the ripple effect always lands hardest on ordinary households and small investors who trusted “safe” institutions to manage their savings responsibly. It's not just...

 When governments stop paying their workers, economies don’t just pause — they fracture. At the start of October 2025, the U.S. government entered another budget standoff, triggering a partial shutdown that left 1.4 million federal employees either furloughed or working without pay. The cause? Congress failed to agree on a spending package before the fiscal deadline. While the political headlines focused on partisan blame, the deeper question is far more structural: How does one of the world’s largest economies run out of money — again? Why the Money “Ran Out” In the U.S., federal agencies can’t spend without congressional approval. Each year, lawmakers must pass 12 appropriations bills that fund everything from border control to national parks. If they don’t, operations legally grind to a halt. This year, sharp divisions over defence spending, foreign aid, and deficit control led to a funding lapse. Without an approved budget or a temporary extension (known as a continuing reso...

 The optimism that surrounded last year’s general election is fading fast. Many of the business leaders who publicly backed Labour’s call for “change” are now grappling with the harsher reality of their decisions - rising costs, shrinking margins, and a fragile consumer base. According to the ONS (Office of National Statistics) , business insolvencies continue to climb, while new business formation has slowed sharply. Supermarkets are reporting profit margins as low as 3–4%, and even large service companies are cutting back investment to protect cash flow. The hope was that political stability would unlock growth. Instead, a disasterous fiscal policy, high borrowing costs, and wage inflation have combined to create a squeeze at every level of the economy.  For business owners, this translates to higher operating expenses.  For employees, it means fewer hours, frozen pay, and increasing job insecurity. With another budget on the horizon, few expect relief. The reality i...

 According to the latest figures from the UK Insolvency Service , more than 2,000 businesses went into insolvency last month — a clear indication that financial pressure is now spreading across multiple sectors. Rising business failures often precede rising unemployment, and together these indicators reinforce growing concerns that the UK could be entering a deeper recessionary phase. The chart below highlights how insolvencies have accelerated since mid-2023, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates, reduced consumer spending, and tightening credit conditions. Source: Insolvency Service, © Crown copyright. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Data available from the UK Insolvency Service Rising Unemployment — The Next Phase of the Cycle When business closures rise, job losses are never far behind. Recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that unemployment has started to edge higher over the same perio...